What is the stock market expected to do in 2024?
Fortunately, analysts see positive earnings and revenue growth for all eleven market sectors this year. The healthcare sector is expected to generate a market-leading 17.8% earnings growth in 2024, while the information technology sector is expected to lead the way with 9.3% revenue growth.
"In quantifying this risk, essentially, the S&P 500 is 14% above the level it should average in the current quarter, 6.7% above the level it should average in Q4 2024 and 0.5% above the level it should average in Q4 2025." In addition, financial market performance has shifted toward defense over the past three weeks.
Meanwhile, the median streak of positive returns can extend to 17 months with a gain of 14%, based on historical data. That suggests the S&P 500 could trade to 6,000 by August 2025, and to as high as 6,150 by November 2025.
Here's the Growth Stock to Buy Right Now. The Nasdaq-100 technology index plunged into a bear market in 2022 on the back of a 33% loss for the year.
U.S. stock returns: 2023 optimism carries forward
This heightened optimism is on par with the positive outlook in December 2021, when investors anticipated a 6% stock market return for 2022. Investor expectations for stock returns over the long run (defined as the next 10 years) rose slightly to 7.2%.
The bank's analysts give a positive forecast for the Dow Jones exchange rate in 2024. In their opinion, index quotes will increase by 10% to $40,000 in 2024. If the US economy avoids recession, growth could reach up to 19%. This scenario is more likely due to cooling inflation and stable GDP growth.
Key Takeaways. While holding or moving to cash might feel good mentally and help avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be wise over the long term. Once you cash out a stock that's dropped in price, you move from a paper loss to an actual loss.
The estimates from strategists put the median target for the S&P 500 at 5,200 by the end of 2024, implying a decline of less than 1% from Friday's level, according to MarketWatch calculations. Heading into 2024, the median target was around 5,000 (see table below).
To reach 50,000, the Dow wouldn't even need to double — it would require a 31.6% gain from the 38,000 level. If the DJIA companies only earned the current 1.77% dividend yield, it would take 15.6 years for the index to reach the 50,000 mark.
To some investors, this might seem unlikely. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, an index that has astonished with its ascent over the past decade, likely will continue to astonish through the 2020s, rising to 50,000 by 2027.
Will 2024 be a bull or bear market?
Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.
Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) are some of the stocks that will make you rich in 2024, besides Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR).
- Amazon's growth drivers include advertising, cloud services, and a new satellite internet service.
- Intel could gain market share with its new AI chips.
- Salesforce's transformation initiative is paying off in increased productivity and profits.
- DaVita Inc. ( ticker: DVA)
- DraftKings Inc. ( DKNG)
- Extra Space Storage Inc. ( EXR)
- First Solar Inc. ( FSLR)
- Gen Digital Inc. ( GEN)
- Microsoft Corp. ( MSFT)
- Nvidia Corp. ( NVDA)
- SoFi Technologies Inc. ( SOFI)
This is the most bullish Dow Jones forecast for 2024. The Dow Jones is forecasted to trade in the 40,000-50,000 range during 2025 and continue the sideways movements in the next years. In five years from now, the agency forecasts Dow Jones to trade at around 50,000 points.
Stock prices have surged significantly over the past 18 months. The S&P 500 is up by 45% since it bottomed out in October 2022, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq has soared by a whopping 58% in that time. Investing now, then, means paying much higher prices than you would if you'd bought a year or two ago.
Investors might sell a stock if it's determined that other opportunities can earn a greater return. If an investor holds onto an underperforming stock or is lagging the overall market, it may be time to sell that stock and put the money to work in another investment.
There are no set ages to get into or to get out of the stock market. While older clients may want to reduce their investing risk as they age, this doesn't necessarily mean they should be totally out of the stock market.
Your investment is put into various asset options, including stocks. The value of those stocks is directly tied to the stock market's performance. This means that when the stock market is up, so is your investment, and vice versa. The odds are the value of your retirement savings may decline if the market crashes.
No one, including the company that issued the stock, pockets the money from your declining stock price. The money reflected by changes in stock prices isn't tallied and given to some investor. The changes in price are simply an independent by-product of supply and demand and corresponding investor transactions.
How is S&P doing in 2024?
Wall Street analysts ultimately expect S&P 500 companies to grow earnings by roughly 11% in 2024. And by the fourth quarter, growth is expected to have roughly evened out, with the top 10 stocks expected to see growth of 17.2% while the other 490 companies see growth of 17.8%, according to FactSet data.
Meanwhile, the median streak of positive returns can extend to 17 months with a gain of 14%, based on historical data. That suggests the S&P 500 could trade to 6,000 by August 2025, and to as high as 6,150 by November 2025.
They point to the fact that the US economy is expected to grow at a slower pace in the coming years and that interest rates are likely to rise. As a result, they expect the S&P 500 to grow by an average of 5-7% per year over the next five years.
The S&P 500 lost approximately 50% of its value, but the duration of this bear market was just below average. The bear market was confirmed in June 2008 when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) had fallen 20% from its October 11, 2007 high.
Based on 12 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Dow Inc in the last 3 months. The average price target is $59.60 with a high forecast of $68.00 and a low forecast of $52.00.
References
- https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240420276/this-chart-shows-why-the-stock-market-rally-should-broaden-out-later-this-year
- https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/dow/forecast
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